TJ Ringkas: (Intipati rencana sambil tokok tambah)

INDUSTRI KERETA: SAAT TERUJI SEBENARNYA

Industri otomobil Malaysia yang dipelihara daripada ancaman saingan itu kelihatan gemuk dan berisi ketika ini. Maklum sajalah, cukai atau tarif kepada kereta asing amat tinggi, kekadang mencecah 300%. Tetapi kawalan itu tidak akan dapat memagarkan industri kesayangan diktator sewel itu selama-lamanya. Masalah dalaman sengaja dibiarkan berlarutan sedangkan masa yang tinggal untuk bertahan dan belajar itu sudah semakin singkat. Ketiadaan saingan yang kuat itu menyebabkan industri tempatan merasa boleh goyang kaki.... Menjelang 2005, Malaysia perlu mampu bersaing dengan pengeluar bertaraf antarabangsa. Sebagai ahli AFTA, ia terpaksa membuka ruang yang adil. Tanpa persediaan secukupnya, industri otomobil akan pupus dan mampus. Atau mungkin tergadai begitu bagai barang besi tak laku.

Beribu2 kenderaan dari Ford dan General Motors yang sedang dikeluarkan di Thailand itu bakal meraih cinta pelanggan dan menggugat industri tempatan. Itu belum masuk "award winning model" lagi......

Industri otombil negara adalah antara projek wawasan diktator Mahathir. Ia menggunakan teknologi kelas kedua (atau mungkin kelas paria?) dari Mitsubishi. Percantuman koporat dalam industri otomobil masakini membuatkan setiap pemain dalam industri ini terpinggir dengan sendirinya. Pecantuman Daimler dan Chrysler, (dan kes Renault, Jaguar dan Rover) seharusnya sudah lama dapat dibaca oleh setiap pemimpin yang berwawasan sebelum mereka beria-ria hendak berniaga. Kini Mahathir baru terpinga-pinga menawarkan 30% dalam Proton. Sebelum ini Petronas sudahpun terpaksa hulur tangan, jika tidak terbabaslah Proton dalam gaung keseorangan.

SUDAH TIDAK BOLEH KETAWA LAGI

Untuk menjadi pengeluar yang berwibawa dan menguntungkan, negara perlu mengeluarkan 200,000 unit setahun, barulah berbaloi semua modal yang terlabur. Tahun lepas kita hanya mampu mengeluarkan 222,000 kereta berpenumpang sahaja. Jika perlindungan tarif keatas kereta impot ditarik balik, jangan harap kita dapat menjual sebanyak itu lagi.

Sekarang Proton menguasai 65% pasaran. Bila pasaran dibuka nanti ia tidak boleh ketawa besar lagi dengan angka itu.

Menurut pakar, 50% pelanggan akan bertukar selera nanti, khususnya kereta bersaiz sederhana seperti Proton. Perodua dijangka tidak tergugat kerana harganya "terlalu murah" dan sasarannya berbeda, oleh itu ia kurang berisiko dan lebih mampu hidup bila Afta dibuka. Proton perlu melakukan perubahan yang lebih radikal untuk memenuhi citarasa dan kehendak pelanggan - khususnya mutu dan keselesaan. Jangan dihidangi rakyat dengan besi sekuat "tin milo" lagi sedangkan harganya masih tinggi.

Menurut Tengku Mahaleel, unjuran 2 tahun Afta itu akan dimanfaatkan sepenuhnya untuk membina kejuruteraan yang lebih tinggi.

"Penekanan kami dalam empat tahun akan datang ini ialah kejuruteraan, kejuruteraan, kejuruteraan", katanya.

Sekarang Proton sedang membina enjin Lotus (Code: S-ENG) untuk kenderaan kecil biasa pula dan ingin mengekspotnya ke negara dalam AFTA.

Menurut peta saikologi, adalah penting untuk Proton membina kenderaasn yang bermutu pada harga yang kompetetif ($13,000 - $18,000), supaya ia mampu hidup dalam Afta." kata analis Boey dari Chase JF.

KEJURUTERAAN SEBENAR

Ia boleh menang harga, tetapi amat sukar untuk memenangi hati pembeli, seperti yang berjaya dilakukan oleh Honda, Toyota dan Ford. Kereta luar ini akan menjadi lebih murah lagi bila kilang2 mereka dibina disini atau ia diimpot melalui Thailand.

Menurut analis dari Sarawak Sekuriti, Proton perlu mencari rakan untuk menembusi pasaran di luar agar nama dan kekuatannya dapat ditonjolkan.

Akan tetapi, Legewie dari German institute berpendapat "Firma barat lebih berminat kepada tenaga buruh yang meluas dirantau Asia ini, khususnya dari India, Korea, Taiwan dan mungkin Jepun dan China . . Dalam senario seperti ini, saya hanya dapat melihat Thailand akan muncul sebagai pemenang dan semua negara lain akan pupus secara perlahan."

SIAPA MENIPU SIAPA?

Kadang kita perlu bertanya mengapa Mahathir asyik merasmikan pelbagai program Proton sana sini. Ia mirip beliau terbang ke Langkawi acap-kali. Pebagai perlindungan diberi kepada projek-projek gergasi ini, tetapi mereka sendiri ada menyimpan sesuatu yang tersembunyi.

Mengapa misalnya kereta Proton dikatakan "laris" di UK, sehingga ada yang kembali ke negara ini? Apakah ia laris dibeli atau senang tercerai umpama bini? Rupa terasa "cantik" tapi hati akhirnya benci.....

Ada satu rencana lalu dari Pak -MT- dalam isu ini. Akan dikeluarkan kembali menyusul nanti.

Source: The Far Eastern Economic Review Issue cover-dated 23rd November 2000

CAR MAKING : Moment of Truth

Malaysia has laboured long and hard to build a viable national car industry. But the rules of the game have changed so drastically that it risks being left behind

By Lorien Holland/KUALA LUMPUR

THE DAY OF RECKONING is fast approaching. All the way to the top of Malaysia's cosseted car industry, executives are seeing the demise of their protected markets and the collapse of their cosy position as a national industry. With the crunch date of 2005 just around the corner, they have woken up to the potential dangers of regional competition and are scrambling to transform themselves from national into regional players.

But Malaysia's two car companies, Proton and Perodua, are being forced onto markedly different paths to boost their chances of surviving a flurry of mega-mergers and stiffening global competition. "Don't think the apparent calm means that nothing is being done," says one of Malaysia's top car executives. "We realize the magnitude of the problem and that we need to work very, very fast."

Conventional wisdom in the car industry holds that production lines have to turn out 200,000 units a year before manufacturers can hope to reach an economy of scale and count on long-term viability. Malaysia only managed total output of 222,000 passenger cars last year.

Tariffs of up to 300% on imported cars allowed the fledgling industry to hold out against the world's car giants. But that protection will soon fall away. Malaysia is a member of the Asean Free Trade Area, or Afta, part of a regional plan to liberalize trade within Southeast Asia and prepare for global competition. That means it will have to drop its protective shield by 2005 and open its car industry to competition from within the region, particularly from the likes of Ford and General Motors, which are already producing vehicles in Thailand.

The immediate prognosis is not good. Unless it makes big changes fast, the major local producer, Proton, which controls 65% of the domestic passenger-car market, could see its market share cut in half. That could happen within five years of implementation of the Afta tariffs, according to a recent assessment of the company by Dresdner Kleinwort Benson for one of Proton's major shareholders.

Malaysia's government, and particularly Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, has invested a great deal of political capital in the national car industry. As an indication of its psychological importance, Proton's production line graces the 100 ringgit note--the largest in circulation--and Kuala Lumpur is providing all the protection it can muster for the industry. Most significantly, Mahathir has already drawn the ire of his three car-making neighbours--Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines--by succeeding in postponing implementation of Afta's 5% ceiling on car import tariffs by two years until 2005.

That gives Proton and Perodua a chance to overhaul the expansion plans they had in place before the 1997 Asian Crisis sent car sales tumbling. But Proton will have to move fast and find a global partner if it's to emerge as a regional manufacturer with any clout. For Perodua, becoming a regional assembler is the only likely path for success, and that will require speedy footwork too.

"Whether Malaysia's national car industry will be a winner or a loser is an open question," says Dr. Jochen Legewie, head of the Economics Section at the German Institute for Japanese Studies in Tokyo and an expert on the use of Japanese car technology in member-states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. "Certainly, remaining as national as it has been so far will not be a good prescription to compete in the globalized market."

Proton, producer of mid-market sedan cars largely modelled on old technology from Japan's Mitsubishi Motors, will have to throw much of its national pride to the wind and find a strong foreign partner to guide and finance its expansion overseas. Even Mahathir, the company's greatest ally, has conceded the need for new blood and announced that a 30% stake in the company was open to foreign purchasers. "The merger between Daimler and Chrysler started off the global trend to merge, and these companies are very big, very powerful and very difficult to compete with," he said at a press conference in October.

In contrast with Proton, the only path open for the smaller, six-year-old Perodua is to expand its role as an assembler for Japanese manufacturer Daihatsu. All its four models are currently based on technology from Daihatsu, and its main advantage is that it has carved out a niche market for the cheapest car on the road in the region. That means Perodua will face no direct competition from other producers within Afta and should have a chance to survive. Negotiations with Daihatsu and its new shareholder, Toyota, are already under way to expand the Perodua plant and make Malaysia a regional export base, industry sources say.

FOREIGN EXPERTISE

For Perodua, the key to the deal is the sales and marketing expertise of Daihatsu and Toyota. The company's own attempts at export have been unsuccessful. If all goes to plan and the Malaysian government agrees to jettison hopes of marketing the Perodua brand overseas, a much-expanded plant could be operational by 2005 and ready to supply the region with up to 300,000 vehicles a year. These would be marketed under the Daihatsu or Toyota brands in the rest of Asean while the Perodua brand would be confined to Malaysia.

"Three months ago I would have said that Perodua stands the greatest chance of success, as it at least has a niche market within Asean," says Melvyn Boey, car analyst with Chase JF Securities in Kuala Lumpur. "But now Proton has basically acknowledged that it will have to compete against the major global auto players like Toyota and Ford, and the company is openly trying to target a tie-up with one of them."

Proton does have its attractions. It has the only design-engineering facility among Asean nations. It recently unveiled its first engine, created by subsidiary Group Lotus in Britain, and it has just started production of its first, largely locally designed sedan, the Waja. "The attraction of buying into Proton is to get a strong foothold in Asia, and tap into their research and development and ties with Lotus," says Loke Chee Kien, head of research at Sarawak Securities in Kuala Lumpur.

Despite the globalization of the car industry, models aimed simultaneously at all major markets have not succeeded. Different regions expect different specifications, mostly predicated on size. A design and engineering capability tailored to Asian tastes is a valuable asset--especially one with input from Lotus.

At the launch of its Waja model in September, Proton Chief Executive Mahaleel Ariff said the two-year extension on protecting its markets would be used to focus on its independent engineering and design skills. "Our emphasis in the next four years is engineering, engineering, engineering," he said. The company plans to put its newly developed Lotus engine (code-named S-ENG for small engine) into commercial production within two years, following modifications made in Lotus's Malaysian facility. It will use the engine not only in the Waja but also for export to other countries in the region.

"Psychologically, it is very important for Proton to show that it can make a good car at a competitive price, so it can build a reputation that can survive the Afta deal," says Chase JF analyst Boey. Priced between $13,000 and $18,000, the new model significantly undercuts all imported competition. But it will not have the same advantage over Japan's Honda Motors, which should start new joint-venture production in Malaysia next year, and have its vehicles on far lower tariff levels than imports. And that will only be a shadow of the competition Proton will face from 2005 when cheaper Toyotas and Fords from Thailand roll in.

"The most important thing for Proton is to reach an economy of scale and properly penetrate developed markets. It needs a strong partner to open up these markets and help with marketing and brand positioning," says Sarawak Securities' Loke. But as Legewie of the German institute points out, "these Western firms are interested in a wider regional division of labour including India, Korea, Taiwan and probably Japan and China . . . In such a scenario, within Asean I only see Thailand as a winner and all the other countries gradually losing out."