Mahathir sebenarnya menebuk sendiri lubang di dalam kapal yang diterajuinya ketika meredah lautan yang bergelora. Dialah yang menyebabkan kapal Umno terumbang-ambing dan kecundang dalam banyak tempat pada pilihanraya yang lepas. Akibatnya sokongan orang Melayu kepada Umno sudah merosot. Kini rakyat sudah sedar dan tragedi 5 November lalu sudah cukup untuk diambil gambar, sehingga pihak polis pun turut serta menjadi "pengambil gambar".

UMNO seharusnya memerhatikan gambar tragedi itu dengan penuh perasaan. Gambar seperti inilah nanti yang akan menyebabkan umno meragam sejak dulu, dan ia kini sudah terdiam. Lama-lama umno akan pitam. Bila itu berlaku, kapal yang besar itu pun akan tenggelam....

Terjemahan Ringkas:

Pemimpin UMNO - Masih Terlalu Awal Untuk Pergi

oleh S. Jayasankaran, KUALA LUMPUR

Sejak prestasi merosot dalam keputusan pemilu November tahun lepas, UMNO asyik bercakap mengenai perlunya perubahan dan kembali kepada akar-umbi perjuangannya yang demokratik. Tetapi pada 30 Oktober lalu, MKT meluluskan beberapa cadangan yang gagal untuk memenuhi tuntutan reformasi tersebut, malah ia nampaknya semakin mengukuhkan kepimpinan yang sedia ada.

Jika cadangan baru tersebut diterima pakai, bermakna tiada pemilihan pucuk pimpinan UMNO pada tahun 2003. Ini bermakna Mahathir tidak akan menghadapi ujian kepimpinan dalam tempoh sesi parlimen masakini, di mana beliau pernah mengatakan sebagai jawatannya yang terakhir. Ini akan memberi beliau fleksibiliti selonggar mungkin untuk menentukan bila untuk berundur dan untuk mempertahankan timbalan serta pengganti pilihannya, TPM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi yang dijangka mengetuai pemilu akan datang. Para pengkritik menganggap cadangan tersebut akan membuatkan Umno semakin liat untuk direformasikan.

Cadangan2 tersebut akan didebatkan di perhimpunan luarbiasa Umno yang akan bermula pada 18 November, hampir setahun selepas ia dikejutkan dengan kemenangan besar PAS. Pukulan kekalahan itu membuatkan Umno menubuhkan satu jawatan kuasa menjelajah keseluruh negara untuk mendapat maklumat dari ahli apa yang perlu diubah.

Sudah pasti ahli-ahli pelbagai peringkat mahukan kebebasan memilih pucuk pimpinan tanpa sebarang sekatan siapa yang sepatutnya dicalunkan. Misi menyelamatkan umno itu pula menyokong tempoh pimpinan dilanjutkan dari tiga tahun kepada 5 tahun supaya sama dengan tempoh pemilu.

Bila cadangan2 ini sampai kepada MKT yang dipengerusikan oleh Mahathir sendiri, beliau terus menolak cadangan akar umbi yang lebih berdemokrasi. Setakat ini umno hanya mampu melancarkan gerakan "Putri Umno" sahaja untuk mengais sokongan golongan muda wanita melayu yang dijangka merupakan sebahagian besar daripada pengundi dalm pemilu nanti.

Keputusan MKT itu merupakan satu tamparan kepada sebarang usaha untuk mereformasikan keadaan. Oleh itu perhimpunan 18 November itu nanti dijangka tidak memihak kepada tuntutan akar umbi. Para analis berpendapat ia akan menyukarkan lagi untuk Umno meraih sokongan dari generasi baru. Menurut satu badan pemikir hampi dengan kerajaan, tindakkan itu seolah-olah satu fenomena hangat-hangat tahi ayam. Editor AgendaMalaysia, Rehman Rashid pula berpendapat ia satu tindakkan "sinikal yang menghairankan".

Ramai ahli berpendapat reformasi mendalam perlu dalam Umno untuk menangani kemusnahan selepas tragedi pemecatan Anwar pada tahun 1998. Dengan menyisihkan tuntuan demokrasi dalaman yang lebih luas dalam tubuh Umno sendiri, ia hanya mengundang lebih kecelakaan. Dianggarkan 2 juta pengundi baru yang hampir kesemuanya muda, akan layak mengundi dalam pemilu nanti.

ALASAN YANG BERBELIT

Mahathir memberitahu wartawan bahawa tindakkan menyamakan pemilihan dalam parti dengan tempoh parlimen itu sebagai satu langkah untuk mengurangkan pembelian undi,. Tetapi ramai yang berpendapat ia akan menyisih muka-muka baru.

"Orang mengatakan ia tidak demokratik, tetapi mengapa mereka mahu menyertainya juga?" kata seorang pegawai parti yang berpangkat tetapi tidak berada dalam MKT. (Sebab mereka terlalu amat setia sehingga segala prinsip digadaikan. - penterjemah)

Mahathir yang sudah berusia 76 tahu itu telah berkuasa sejak 1981. Ketika ditanya di Hong Kong baru2 ini beliau mengatakan

"Ia lebih adil jika saya terus memimpin sehingga dia (Pak Lah) sudah bersedia".

- TJ Man Kubur -

Source: http://www.feer.com/

The Far Eastern Economic Review

Issue cover-dated 16th November 2000

Too Soon to Go

Umno's leaders propose prolonging their rule without party elections

By S. Jayasankaran/KUALA LUMPUR

SINCE ITS POOR PERFORMANCE in last November's general election, Malaysia's dominant party, the United Malays National Organization, has repeatedly talked of the need for change and a return to its grassroots, democratic origins. But on October 30, Umno's Supreme Council approved a set of proposals that fails to meet the reformist demands of most party members and looks set only to strengthen the leadership's grip on power.

If the proposals are adopted by the party, Umno elections due in 2003 would be scrapped--meaning that prime minister and party president Mahathir Mohamad won't face another leadership test in the lifetime of the current parliament, which he has said will be his last. That would give him maximum flexibility in deciding when to step down, and protect his deputy and designated successor, Deputy Premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who is expected to lead Umno into the next election. Critics in the party, however, say the proposals could rebound on Umno by making it appear impervious to reform.

The proposals will be debated at an extraordinary Umno general assembly starting on November 18--almost a year after the party was shaken by big election gains by the opposition Islamic Party of Malaysia. That blow prompted Umno to set up a fact-finding mission, which scoured the country for months to find out what members wanted changed.

Essentially, the rank and file said they wanted a greater say in choosing party leaders, with no restrictions on who could stand against them in party elections. In reflecting these views, the mission also recommended that leaders' terms should follow the term of parliament, which is elected once every five years (unless a snap election is called). This would lengthen the leaders' tenure, since party elections are currently held every three years.

The proposals went to the party's Supreme Council, which is chaired by Mahathir and decides what goes to the general assembly. The council chose the longer terms--but rejected the steps to enhance democracy. Its biggest initiative was to launch a movement called "Puteri Umno," or "Umno Princesses," to attract young Malay women, who will be the core of new voters in the next general election, due in 2004.

The decision to drop the steps toward greater democratization suggests opposition to reform. The carefully organized assembly is widely expected to endorse the council's proposals. Analysts say they will probably make it harder for the party to attract new, young blood--precisely the challenge that triggered the hunt for change. Says the head of a think-tank close to the government: "After raising expectations, the Supreme Council doesn't fulfil them. This reinforces cynicism, and will make it more difficult to get new blood." Rehman Rashid, editor of the on-line journal AgendaMalaysia, also called it a "surprisingly cynical" move.

Many members saw deep changes in Umno as crucial to damage-control after the sacking in 1998 of then-Deputy Premier Anwar Ibrahim. By ignoring the desire for greater internal democracy, Umno may only end up losing more votes. By the time of the next general election, almost 2 million new voters, mostly young, will have been added to the electorate.

The fact-finding mission suggested that elections at various party levels be held simultaneously so that 30,000 members chose the top leaders instead of the 2,000 delegates to an annual general assembly, as presently happens. It also proposed that limits on who can contest party posts be scrapped. But Mahathir said the council rejected simultaneous elections because they would pose logistical problems, and wouldn't guarantee an end to election corruption. The council thought the conditions for nominations should remain, he added.

CHARACTERISTICALLY CRYPTIC

Mahathir told reporters that holding party elections in line with parliament's term would reduce vote-buying. But some believe the change will also deter new blood. "People will say that Umno leaders aren't democratic at all and so why would anyone want to join the party," says a senior party official, who is not in the 35-person Supreme Council.

The party president and vice-president are automatically also prime minister and deputy premier. The council's decisions have analysts wondering anew when Mahathir, 76, and in power since 1981, will actually go. Asked by reporters in Hong Kong recently about the timing of the succession to Abdullah, Mahathir was characteristically cryptic, saying: "It's only fair for me to stay on until he is competent enough."