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MALAYSIA MAHU BERGANTUNG KEPADA BELANJA, EKSPOT UNTUK MENGAWAL EKONOMI

Umumnya rencana ini menyebut Malaysia sudah kekeringan suntikkan baru pelaburan terus dana asing (FDI) jangka panjang. Untuk itu ia perlu menjanakan ekonomi dengan berbelanja agar ekonomi akan terangsang.

EKSPOT: RAKAN DAGANG KINI PERLAHAN

Menurut Md Ariff dari MIER, FDI dijangka lebih rendah dari jangkaan kerana ekonomi A.S. bergerak agak perlahan. Beliau berpendapat kadar ketumbuhan ekonomi 6.3% tahun depan tetapi UBS Warburg menjangka kira2 4.2% kerana ekspot yang lemah, khususnya dibidang elektronik. Daim pula nampak optimis dengan 7%.

RINGGIT TIDAK KOMPETETIF

Ekspot sahaja tidak cukup untuk diharapkan kerana pasaran barangan elektronik dijangka menurun. Nilai ringgit yang agak tinggi kebelakangan ini akan mencederakan ekspot juga. Kadar ringgit kini pada tahap 5% Yen dan Dolar Singapura, 15 % Baht, 17% peso, 6% rupiah dan 21% Dolar Australia. Jika ekspot mula pudar, Malaysia terpaksa menilai semula matawang ringgit

EKONOMI YANG "ARTIFICIAL"

Dengan memagari ekonomi, Malaysia kini kelihatan sihat serta sudah pulih dari kemelesetan. Sewaktu ia dilanda musim itu, ia telah menggunakan kawalan modal dan menurunkan kadar faedah untuk menyelamatkan gergasi koporat yang berhutang besar. Ia juga turut menggunakan dana Petronas untuk beberapa siri penyelamatan kepada kroni. Petronas sendiri mengeluar bon pada premium yang tinggi setelah teruk berbelanja sana sini, termasuk menyuntik dana kepada bank BBMB.

Di saat Malaysia dipagari oleh pelbagai kawalan "keselamtan" itu, ia tidak bersungguh-sungguh untuk mereformasi koporat sehingga keparat di dalamnya tetap bebas dan masih berkarat.

PELABUR LUAR SEMAKIN KELUAR

Harapan dana asing akan kembali bila Morgan Stanley menyenaraikan Malaysia pada bulan Mei lalu nampaknya berkecai begitu sahaja. Malahan ia menterbalikkan keadaan. Pelabur asing didapati penjual utama pegangan milik mereka. Rezab Forex (Tukaran Asing) Malaysia pula merosot pada setengah tahun 2000 kepada $33 bilion walaupun dagangan dikatakan berlebihan.

Pakar ekonomi berpendapat kemerosotan ini disebabkan pengekspot Malaysia gagal untuk mengambil kesempatan sepenuhnya dari hasil jualan dan potfolio asing tersebut.

FDI MEROSOT

Sentimen pelabur menyahut Belanjawan kali ini terjawab dengan jatuhnya indeks BSKL sebanyak 3.9% pada 27/10/2000. Menurut pakar ekonomi, Malaysia perlu memberi fokus menguatkan ekonominya dengan menarik minat FDI. Lapuran terkini menunjukkan FDI tahun ini hanya RM 7.9 bilion (8 bulan pertama) berbanding RM 12.26 bilion tahun 1999.

Pelaburan dari A.S. dan Singapura, dua rakan terbesarnya, masih ditahap lemah dan jauh dari sebelum krisis ini lagi. FDI yang masuk pada tahun ini pula lebih banyak tertumpu kepada sektor petrokimia.

TEKNIK MENGEPAM EKONOMI

Tanpa FDI kerajaan kini bergantung kepada tindakan mengepam mengepam pula. Dalam belanjawan 2001, Daim menyebut kerajaan akan berbelanja 4.7 bilion kepada projek infrastrukur untuk menjana ekonomi. Perbelanjaan ini dan lain2 perbelanjaan akan menambah defisit kira2 4.9% GNP.

ODITOR KERAJAAN MENEGUR SENDIRI

Ketua Odit Negara pula telah mengeluarkan beberapa lapuran menegur dan memberi amaran akan perlunya kecekapan dalam pengurusan wang dan pengagihan dana. Ia juga turut memberi amaran kepada kerajaan daripada menggunakan sebahagian daripada rezab tunai negara untuk menanggung defisit belanjawan itu.

Lapuran Odit tersebut juga memberi amaran hutang $48 bilion yang ditanggung oleh pelbagai agensi kerajaan dari institusi milik tempatan dan asing itu akan membawa risiko jangka-panjang.

From Asian Wall Street Journal
6th November 2000

Malaysia to Rely on Spending, Exports To Keep Economy on Growth Track

By LESLIE LOPEZ Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia -- Malaysia is counting mainly on increased government spending and a robust export sector to sustain its economic recovery. But Kuala Lumpur's strategy provides little room to maneuver should the global economy slow sharply, some economists say.

Lower-than-expected direct foreign investment and a drop in export growth because of a slower U.S. economy will probably hold Malaysia's economic expansion next year below the 7.5% inflation-adjusted growth forecast for 2000. "We need foreign investment to generate productive capacity for future growth," says Mohamed Ariff Abdul Kareem, executive director of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. "But that's lacking and not broad-based."

Mr. Ariff predicts 6.3% growth next year, while Sanjay Mathur, Asian economist for UBS Warburg in Singapore, expects 4.2% because of weaker exports, especially in the electronics sector. Malaysian Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin last week announced an official forecast of 7% growth in 2001.

Because Malaysia's strategy is heavily reliant on a strong export sector, some economists worry that a slowdown among the country's main trading partners could raise questions about Kuala Lumpur's fixed exchange-rate policy. In recent months, the ringgit -- which is pegged at 3.80 ringgit to the dollar -- has strengthened in line with the U.S. currency. The ringgit has appreciated against the currencies of many of its trading partners and competitors: 5% against the yen and the Singapore dollar; 15% against the baht; 17% against the Philippine peso; 6% against the rupiah and 21% against the Australian dollar.

Several economists say the strengthening ringgit has eroded the competitiveness of Malaysian exports. Should export demand fade, Malaysia could be forced to devalue its currency to keep its exports attractive. "If the ringgit was considered to be undervalued before, it is now at fair value," says Mr. Sanjay.

There are already signs of trouble on the currency control front. Despite the large trade surpluses, the buildup of Malaysia's foreign-exchange reserves has stalled, indicating that the country's exchange capital controls -- imposed in September 1998 to stanch currency speculation and capital flight -- have become porous. "The controls are losing their effectiveness," says Mr. Ariff, who strongly believes that Malaysia should abandon its fixed exchange-rate policy.

To be sure, the Malaysian economy is healthier than most of its Southeast Asian neighbors, including Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. At issue, say economists, is whether the country -- which ranked among the world's fastest growing economies in the first half of the decade -- can restore the high-speed growth rates Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad says he wants. "The question is whether Malaysia can get back to quality growth," says Manu Bhaskaran of SG Securities in Singapore.

Two years into Dr. Mahathir's experiment with capital controls, the Malaysian economy today stands at a crucial crossroad. Most economists concede the shift to a fixed exchange-rate regime during the chaos in currency markets in 1998 brought improved stability. The move allowed Malaysia to abandon a high interest-rate policy and sharply reduce the borrowing costs of its debt-bloated corporate sector.

But Kuala Lumpur didn't use the breather it got from capital controls to push through corporate reforms, some economists contend. That has cooled investor sentiment toward Malaysia.

Hopes that foreign capital would flow back into Kuala Lumpur following Malaysia's reinstatement in to the widely tracked Morgan Stanley Capital Indexes in May didn't pan out. Instead, the reverse has occurred. Foreigners have continued to be net sellers of Malaysian equities. And Malaysia's foreign-exchange reserves declined by $700 million in the first half of 2000 to $33 billion (the most recent figures available) despite growing trade surpluses.

Economists attribute the decline, in part, to the reluctance of exporters in Malaysia to fully repatriate sales proceeds as well as portfolio sales by foreigners.

Malaysia's 2001 budget, presented last month, was short on clear initiatives to obtain foreign equity investment and stalled a largely domestic-led rally on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, which had begun in mid-October. The benchmark KLSE Composite Index closed at 760.30 Friday, down 3.9% from Oct. 27, the day the budget was presented.

A sluggish stock market could further hamper Malaysia's lagging corporate debt-restructuring plans and stick local banks with more bad loans. A key feature of most Malaysian restructuring plans is the conversion of debt into stock, which can be sold by the creditor. But to be successful, that approach needs a bullish market.

The stock market aside, some economists argue that Malaysia needs to focus on strengthening its real economy, chiefly by attracting more foreign investment. According to the government's latest annual economic report, approved foreign direct investment reached 7.9 billion ringgit ($2.1 billion) in the first eight months of this year, compared with 12.26 billion ringgit approved for the full-year 1999.

However this year's commitments aren't broad-based and largely represent a few bulky investments such as petrochemical projects. Meanwhile, investment from the U.S., Japan and Singapore -- Malaysia's biggest investors in recent years -- are still well below pre-crisis levels.

Without much direct foreign investment, economists say Malaysia is relying on fiscal pump-priming to boost the economy. Finance Minister Tun Daim, in his budget speech last month, said the government will spend 4.7 billion ringgit on infrastructure projects next year to help spur the economy. That and other spending will stretch Malaysia's 2001 budget deficit to the equivalent of 4.9% of gross national product.

The growing deficit comes when the government is being warned by the Malaysia's own chief auditor to exercise greater prudence in its financial management and allocation of capital. A recent report by the Auditor-General warned the government against plans to partly finance the its budget deficit by dipping into its own cash reserves.

The report also cautioned Kuala Lumpur that sovereign guarantees attached to about 48 billion ringgit in loans owed by various state-backed agencies to local and foreign creditors posed a serious long-term risk to the government.