KOMEN RINGKAS

Jika kita perhatikan betul-betul, suka atau bencinya pelabur kepada Malaysia bukannya kerana ada orang asing yang berkonspirasi terhadap kita. Sebenarnya Mahathir lah punca mereka angkat kaki.

Mahathirlah yang menodai royalti. Dia menempelak Soros sedangkan Soros mengambil wangnya sendiri. Mahathir pula mengambil hak orang di Terengganu sedangkan itu bukan hak dia. Dia juga mengambil 2 billion dari Petronas untuk Mirzan yang sudah terkapai-kapai di lautan. Melalui saluran direct (langsung) pun 7 billion royalti gagal memanfaatkan rakyat Terengganu sekian lama, apakah saluran "Ehsan" ini lebih hebat pula?

Rencana Asiaweek kali ini menunjukkan mulut Mahathir sekali lagi membuat pelabur lari. Malaysia kini bergantung kepada ekspot elektronik yang menyumbangkan FDI. Menurut perangkaan, angka FDI tersebut sudah merosot dalam tempoh 1997-1999. Tahun ini pun lebih teruk dari tahun lepas. Cuma tinggal dua bulan, agaknya sebab itulah beberapa pemimpin negara yang berkaitan terbang ke luar negara. Rafidah sahaja sudah menjelama di US, Korea, dan Eropah. Pak Lah pula cuba menjadi hero di Jepun, sedangkan orang Jepun pun tahu ada orang Jepun yang berkhidmat di Proton itu sudah pulang.

ISU SEBENAR

Menurut AsiaWeek lagi, isu sebenar ialah samada Mahathir sanggup 'overhaul' (memperbaiki) ekonomi betul-betul, bukannya setakat menampal itu ini dengan balutan sahaja. Dia seharusnya membiarkan orang yang telah gagal pergi atau pengurusan dirombak supaya ekonomi dapat berdiri. Namun Mahathir tidak menyetujui semua itu kerana ia adalah milik kroni. Oleh itu pelabur menyifatkan belanjawan kali ini sebagai satu mekap perniagaan yang pro kroni. Itulah apa yang berlaku kepada MAS dan Proton yang begitu tenat sekarang ini.

Pelabur juga tidak selesa dengan pelbagai kawalan dan undang-undang yang sering berubah. Kini dibenua Amerika nama Mahathir sudah membusukkan imej Malaysia kerana berpeluk dengan Castro. Resolusi Kongres Amerika pula sudah menampar pipi kanan Mahathir, manakala penarikan balik jemputan oleh ISNA telah memerahkan lagi mukanya. Sebelum itu satu wawancara ABC di Australia turut menggemparkan dunia kerana ia menyerlahkan betapa Mahathirlah punca segala karenah yang menyebabkan dia musnah di mata orang Melayu sendiri. Sekarang dia sudah terketar-ketar kerana rekod FDI tahun ini sudah memberi satu tanda - ia semakin musnah.

From Asiaweek
Issue 10th November 2000

Mixed Messages

A new budget won't bring the foreign money back

By ARJUNA RANAWANA Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia just can't seem to figure out what it wants. Last week Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin unveiled the budget for 2001. On the face of things, it was a pro-business document. Among the provisions announced were those clearly aimed at wooing foreign funds back into the country. But a day later, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad was railing against the encroachment of Western civilization. Speaking at the Asia Society in Hong Kong, Mahathir, who in the past has suggested that Jewish speculators were out to bring down the Asian markets, backed away from such conspiracy theories. Nonetheless, he criticized Western institutions for helping bring Asia's economies into "disarray" and asserted that Asian countries should be "subservient to no one, but truly independent."

The market reacted to the budget and to Mahathir's diatribe with a big thumbs down. On Oct. 30, the first full day of activity after the budget announcement, the Kuala Lumpur composite index tumbled 2.12%. The budget sets out to reverse the country's controversial capital controls, which Mahathir imposed in 1998 to restrict the flow of short-term capital. Daim announced that the 10% exit tax on profits from portfolio investments would be lifted for funds that had been in Malaysia for more than a year. This was no doubt an attempt to mollify international investors, who were among the biggest critics of the controls, and encourage more portfolio investments in Malaysia. But the move seems to have backfired, at least in the short run. Brokers in Kuala Lumpur report that they have been "fielding calls all day" from foreign clients who want to know how soon they can take their money out of the market.

Even Mahathir knows that Malaysia can't go it alone. The country's economic growth has always been heavily dependent on foreign direct investments, especially in the electronics sector. But when the Crisis hit in late 1997 and Mahathir started blaming the West, the flow all but dried up. Equity investments the quantum of actual financial transactions in direct investment and expansions of existing businesses from abroad fell sharply between 1997 and 1999, as did portfolio investments in the stock market (see chart opposite page). And since the U.S. and Europe, the main markets for the country's electrical and electronic items, are showing signs of a slowdown, Malaysia's continued growth and recovery depends more than ever on a direct influx of foreign capital.

For Malaysians, the budget offered generally positive news. The economic growth rate for this year was forecast to be 7.5%, up from 5.8% in 1999, although the budget deficit in 2000 was 4.9% of the GNP (1999: 3.2%). Daim promised to put extra money in the pockets of the ordinary folk. The income-tax rebate for individuals was raised from $29 to $92. Civil servants saw their base pension rise, while allowances were increased for doctors, policemen, firemen and soldiers. To enhance Malaysia's competitiveness as a "knowledge-based economy," the budget provided incentives for computer purchase and usage and gave added benefits to skilled overseas Malaysians returning home.

On the surface, the budget seems to promote reform and to discourage the kind of cozy deal-making the government used to engage in with its favored businessmen. Government-funded construction projects have normally been the means through which Malaysia has pump-primed the economy and rewarded politically connected companies. But this year the government reduced the allocation for construction projects from $1.4 billion to $1.24 billion. A move toward a more equitable system? Maybe or it could simply mean that there isn't enough pie to go around. Either way, it disappointed many construction-sector companies, which had hoped to benefit from state largess. Says the head of one such firm: "We had told the government that the best way to get the economy going is to start major infrastructure projects, as then the money gets into the hands of the people within six months."

Perhaps the biggest news was the easing of restrictions on foreign ownership in certain "strategic" industries. "As such, foreign investment participation is allowed through smart partnerships not only by way of foreign equity holdings but also at the management level," said Daim in his speech. The government, he said, would even permit foreign equity participation in the nation's carrier, Malaysian Airline System, and the long-protected Proton national car project. Officials indicate that foreigners can now own up to 35% of Proton. As for MAS, up to 45% could be sold to a single foreign partner if the conditions are right.

The foreign investors aren't impressed. Given that Japan's Mitsubishi, Kuala Lumpur's partner in the Proton project, originally had a 30% stake in the company, the new concession is not as big as it may seem. The real issue is whether Kuala Lumpur and Mahathir are willing to overhaul the economy, allowing companies long favored by the government to fall or restructure. Mahathir has stressed that he prefers not to let companies fail. "What Malaysia needs to do is allay international suspicions with a good example of corporate restructuring and an indication that the playing field is truly level," says an analyst at a foreign brokerage house in Kuala Lumpur. He points to Malaysian Airlines as an example of a company in need of change. "Two foreign carriers, Qantas and Swissair, have had talks with the airline," he says, "but in both cases they appeared to pull out because they were not satisfied that the current management would be changed."

A budget that is cosmetically pro-business will do little to fix Malaysia's economy. Investors say too many companies are still coddled by the government, leading to unfair competition. "From the point of view of the foreign investor, you want to see a signature on the dotted line before you can be convinced that an attitude change has seeped through," says Chong Yoong Chu, investment director of Aberdeen Asset Management Asia. "Malaysia being a country that has changed the rules so many times, investors would like to see a deal actually going through before being convinced."

Still, the fact that Malaysia is expanding foreign ownership in the country's strategic assets, even to the point of having a managing stake, could be the beginning of significant change. Commenting on the MAS and Proton decisions, Yeoh Keat Seng of the online stock advisory company Malaysiastreet.com says: "This is a big announcement. It is not an easy decision considering that it involves two key projects very dear to the heart of this government." Oppositionist Chandra Muzaffar thinks the move shows Mahathir is desperate for foreign capital: "In the case of Proton, it is his pet project, almost an heirloom that he wants to hand to the nation as his singular achievement."

Of course, there are limits to how far the opening-up process goes. "We may be able to go as far as 49% for a foreign partner," says a source at Proton. "But we want someone who will give us technology and export markets. We do not want someone who'll come in and turn us into an assembler for them." Clearly, national pride still underpins national policy.

http://cnn.com/ASIANOW/asiaweek/