Terjemahan Ringkas sambil memberi Komen (point@butiran penting sahaja)

KAJIAN EKONOMI MALAYSIA

Umumnya pelbagai pihak yang menyokong kerajaan menyatakan ekonomi negara sudah pulih. Bagi setengah pakar ekonomi, keadaan negara sebenarnya masih terumbang-ambing... sebab itulah pemimpin tinggi kerajaan asyik mengembara keluar negara menemui pelabur dan banyak mengeluarkan kenyataan atau angka. Dengan kata lain mereka berkempen.

Bagi setengah rakyat malaysia yang perihatin ekonomi negara lebih merupakan ekonomi yang tidak tulin@semulajadi atau "artificial". Ia terasa seperti biasa, tetapi sebenarnya ia hanyalah tiruan semata. Sebab itulah banyak pengurus dana pening kepala, apalagi dana-dana yang pro-kerajaan seperti di Johor. Ia membuat ramai pemegang sahamnya merana.

Inilah musibahnya bila keadaan ekonomi ditinjau serta dianalisa mengikut takwil kata dan petua memanda menteri. Jika kita bijak sedikit kita perlu membaca nombor dan angka negara jiran barulah kita boleh menilai panjang atau pendeknya aqal pemimpin kita. Sekaligus maju atau mundurnya ekonomi negara akan tergambar segera. Ini adalah kerana ekonomi adalah sesuatu yang relatif - dan kawalan modal yang ada tidak menunjukkan kuatnya kita, sebaliknya ia lebih merupakan satu papan yang bertanda yang cuba menutup kemusnahan dan hutang yang bakal membinasa tuannya. Jika papan itu ditanggalkan bayu yang berlalu perlahan pun akan menumbangkan sesiapa yang banyak berhutang. Saya serahkan kepada pembaca untuk menamakan siapakah orangnya yang kuat berbelanja dan berhutang sakan.

Penumbuhan ekonomi malaysia lebih banyak bergantung kepada dua eskpot negara:

1) Permintaan barangan elektronik kilang

2) Gas dan minyak petroleum yang tinggi harganya.

Kesannya negara mengalami perkembangan ekonomi sekitar 10.3% pada suku pertama tahun ini berbanding tahun lepas.

Para analis menganggarkan pertumbuhan (setelah mengambil kira faktor inflasi) pada kadar 8% tahun ini, dan menguncup 5-7% tahun 2001.

GELOJAK BERHATI-HATI

Walaupun begitu, pakar ekonomi memberi amaran pelaburan asing mesti mengalir semula jika pertumbuhan ini mahu terus kekal. Mereka berpendapat pergantungan yang terlalu berat kepada sektor elektronik akan menyebabkan malaysia terkulai jika permintaan luar negara barangan tersebut berkurang.

MALAYSIA: ANGKA YANG TERPAPAR

Seorang pakar ekonomi ABN Amro Bank melahirkan kebimbangan apa yang tampak kini masih kurang menyakinkan.

"Adalah penstrukturan semula sudah dibuat? Apakah sentimen pelabur asing? Adakah pengurus dana luar sudah menyalurkan kembali wang mereka ke Malaysia?"

Dikala pelaburan terus dana asing (Direct FDI) dinegara-negara jiran sudah kembali, kemasukkan FDI ke Malaysia masih jauh dibawah paras sebelum krisis. Hanya kini ia kelihatan tersentak. Namun begitu Pelaburan Asing dalam pasaran saham telah pun kontang walaupun setelah Morgan-Stanley Capital International memasukkan balik Malaysia dalam indeksnya awal tahun ini. BSKL masih dipinggiri oleh ramai pengurus dana.

PELABUR BARU YANG TIDAK MUNCUL

Kelembapan tersebut tidak bermakna tiada seorang pun yang melabur. Menurut kajian oleh Malaysian American Electronics Industry pada 1999, ahli-ahlinya bercadang untuk melabur RM 7 billion pada tempoh 2000-2003.

Tetapi pertubuhan itu juga melapurkan bahawa semua syarikat Amerika yang melabur di Malaysia tahun lepas adalah mereka yang sudah beroperasi di sini; yakni tiada pelabur baru.

SIKAP TUNGGU DAN LIHAT

Pakar-pakar ekonomi berpendapat ramai pengurus dana lebih bersikap "tunggu dan lihat" - terutamanya kesan kawalan modal yang kelihatan memudahkan pengilang. Menurut pengarah MIER, "Walaupun pelaburan dalam negeri penting, ia tidak akan dapat menggantikan pelaburan asing yang lebih bermakna kerana mereka membawa teknologi baru, pasaran baru, pengurusan baru dll".

IKLIM POLITIK

Para pelabur kini meragui ketelusan beberapa institusi negara seperti kehakiman dan polis. Apa yang berlaku kepada Anwar yang telah ditangkap, ditumbuk lebam, didakwa dan seterusnya dihukum dengan hujah pendakwa yang asyik dipinda tidak menyakinkan mereka untuk mempercayai sistem yang ada.

PENGURUSAN YANG MASIH TEMPANG

Lambatnya proses penstrukturan semula koporat turut membimbangkan pelabur. Setakat ini usaha yang melibatkan penyusunan semula hutang dan ekuiti sahaj yang bergema, tetapi tidak ada perubahan besar dalam pemilikkan ataupun pengurusan.

"Jika kamu tidak membayar semua kesalahan-kesalahan lalu, sampai bilapun kamu tidak akan dapat belajar. Itu bermakna benih yang menimbulkan krisis itu belum dinyahkan lagi oleh sistem tersebut". kata seoranmg pakar ekonomi yang tidak ingin disebutkan namanya di sini.

Inilah satu faktor yang menyebabkan pelabur luar tidak berminat. Merekalah yang banyak menjual pegangan pada tahun ini. Kesannya simpanan asing susut pada suku pertengahan tahun ini sebanyak $700 juta kepada $33 bilion, walaupun Malaysia masih berdagang berlebih (surplus).

"Inilah sesuatu untuk diperhatikan", kata Mr Goswami.

"Pasaran saham tidak menamakkan kenaikkan yang menyakinkan, walaupun terdapat kecairan dalam sistem perbankan. Ini adalah punca dari lembapnya proses penstrukturan-semula".

Sila lihat angka-angka ekonomi yang dipaparkan pada hujung rencana ini.

-TJ Man Kubur-

Rencana Asal:

AWSJ: Asian Economic Survey - Malaysia

From Asian Wall Street Journal

23rd October 2000

Malaysia

Foreign investment must flow again if a rally driven by consumer demand and rising oil prices is to continue despite currency controls

By CRIS PRYSTAY Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

KUALA LUMPUR -- When 24-year-old Ahmad Fareedzal Abu Bakar returned to Malaysia from a British university in 1998, the job market was miserable. For more than a year, he scraped by working in temporary clerical posts, despite his honors degree in accounting.

But Mr. Fareedzal's fortunes changed this year: He's been wooed with offers from the likes of Sony Corp.'s Malaysia unit and several other technology firms. "Things are picking up here," says Mr. Fareedzal, now a systems analyst at Abacus International, a software maker for the travel industry. "I feel quite optimistic."

So, apparently, do many other Malaysians. Automobile sales, considered a litmus test for consumer spending here, surged 24% in the first eight months of the year over the same period last year. And consumer credit growth is picking up again after a sluggish 1999.

Malaysia's growth has been driven, in part, by companies like those that courted Mr. Fareedzal. Strong global demand for electronics products and components, the mainstay of the manufacturing sector, helped the economy expand 10.3% in the first half over the same period last year. An oil-and-gas exporter, Malaysia's also benefited from escalating oil prices. Most analysts now predict inflation-adjusted growth of about 8% this year, and between 5% and 7% in 2001.

Cautious Enthusiasm

But some economists qualify their enthusiasm for Malaysia's apparent strength. In particular, they warn that foreign investment must begin to flow again if the rally is going to continue. And they say Malaysia's heavy dependency on electronics exports make it vulnerable to any slump in demand in major overseas markets.

Malaysia: By the Numbers

"A lot of issues not really thought about at the start of the strong cyclical upturn are now coming to the forefront," says Mangal Goswami, regional economist at ABN Amro Bank. "Is restructuring really being done? What is the sentiment among foreign investors? Are fund managers putting money back into Malaysia?"

While direct foreign investment in some neighboring countries is returning, inflows to Malaysia are well below pre-crisis levels and have only recently begun to pick up. Foreign investment in the stock market has also dried up. Even after its return to Morgan Stanley Capital International's indexes earlier this year, the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange continues to be shunned by many fund managers.

Missing: New Investors

That doesn't mean no one's investing. A 1999 survey by the Malaysian American Electronics Industry showed that its members planned to invest seven billion ringgit ($1.84 billion) between 2000 and 2003. But the association also reported that all the U.S. companies investing in Malaysia last year were those already operating here; there were no newcomers.

"The multinationals that are already here are putting more money in," says Mr. Goswami. "But when it comes to new companies entering, there's some tentativeness. They're not sure if there will be a policy reversal on (Malaysia's fixed currency) peg or not, and there's still a lot of baggage that comes along with the negative-sounding remarks (toward the West) that came out during the crisis."

During Asia's financial crisis, Malaysia imposed capital controls and pegged its currency at 3.80 ringgit to the dollar. While that's made life easier for manufacturers, the question of whether the peg will go -- and when -- gives pause to some new investors. "A lot of investors would just rather wait and see," says Sanjay Mathur, director of Asian Economics at UBS Warburg.

Continued sluggish foreign investment could choke future growth. "Local investment is important, but it's no substitute for foreign investment, which brings new technology, new products, new markets and new management know-how," says Mohamed Ariff, executive director of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, an independent think tank.

Meanwhile, political concerns have given some potential investors pause. The arrest, trial and conviction of former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on s###my and corruption charges has split Malaysia's ethnic Malay majority and stirred debate over the integrity of the country's public institutions, including the judiciary and police. Now imprisoned, Datuk Seri Anwar claims to be a victim of a political conspiracy engineered by his one-time mentor, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, now in his 20th year in power.

The slow pace of corporate restructuring is another worry. So far, efforts have largely involved loan restructuring and debt-to-equity swaps; not much has changed with corporate ownership or management.

"If you don't pay for your mistakes, you don't learn. It also means the seeds of the crisis won't have been cleansed from the system," says one Malaysian economist, who declined to be named.

This is one factor deterring foreign equity investors, who have been net sellers of Malaysian stocks this year. Partly as a result of this capital flight, foreign reserves declined in the first half by $700 million, to $33 billion, even though Malaysia continues to run a trade surplus. "It's something to watch," says Mr. Goswami. "The stock market hasn't seen much of an up move, despite strong liquidity in the banking system, because of the slow pace of restructuring.

Malaysia By the Numbers

Population	23.26 million
Unemployment rate (as of June)	3.3%
Pop. growth rate	2.4%
Foreign exchange reserves (as of July 31, 2000)	US$33 billion
Gross foreign debt (as of June 2000)	US$41 billion
GNP per capita at purchasing power parity	US$3,400

Sources: Bank Negara Malaysia Web site, World Bank

GDP

GDP	1999	2000F	2001F
Nominal GDP (billion)	US$74.6	US$89	US$98
Nominal GDP per capita	na	US$3,843	US$4,098

Forecasts: Goldman Sachs (Asia)

Growth in Real GDP

Government	5.8%	5.8%+	na
HSBC Securities	:	+8.5%	+4.8%
UBS Warburg	:	8.4%	4.2%

Consumer Price Index

Government	+2.8%	+3.2%	na
HSBC Securities	:	+2.0%	+2.5%
UBS Warburg	:	+2.0%	+2.4%

Growth in Money Supply (M2)

Government	6.7%	na	na
HSBC Securities	:	4.5%	5.5%
UBS Warburg	:	6.0%	7.0%

Prime Interest Rate (Dec. 31)

Government	6.79%	na	na
HSBC Securities	:	4.5%	5.5%
UBS Warburg	:	6.8%	6.8%

Year-End Exchange Rate (ringgit/$)

Government	3.80	3.80	3.80
HSBC Securities	:	3.80	3.80
UBS Warburg	:	3.80	3.80

Trade

Total exports (billion, % change)	US$84.50	US$100.54	US$106.97
Total imports (billion, % change)	US$65.57	US$82.60	US$88.4
Merchandise trade balance (billion)	+US$18.93	+US$17.94	+US$19.01
Current account balance (billion)	+US$12.48	+US$11	+US$9

Major exports Electronics, palm oil, crude petroleum, apparel and accessories, timber

Major imports Parts and accessories of capital goods, capital goods, processed industrial supplies, primary industrial supplies, food and beverages

Forecasts: UBS Warburg

Direction of Trade

(% of total, Jan.-June)

Country	Exports	Imports
United States	20%	16%
European Union	14%	11%
Japan	13%	21%
Asia excluding Japan	43%	41%

Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

Year-end figures	1999	2000F	2001F
Composite Index	812	850	933
Market capitalization (million)	US$146	US$152	US$167
Average monthly turnover (million)	US$4,062	US$4,890	US$5,125
Average P/E ratio	17.2	17.6	19.3
Average EPS change (%)	149.9*	6.1	19.3
Average dividend yield (at year-end stock prices)	1.5%	2.1%	2.0%

Forecasts: Credit Suisse First Boston

*1999 was a tax-free year +as of Oct.19

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