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Subject: ASIAWEEK The Great Divide For the first time, a Malay government faces a Malay opposition By SANGWON SUH and ARJUNA RANAWANA Kuala Lumpur Muslim voters line up to cast their ballots. The Nov. 29 polls pitted a well-organized government against a unified opposition Edwin Tuyay for Asiaweek At first glance, it looks like a clear-cut victory for Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. His ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition won 148 seats in the 193-member Parliament. The opposition Barisan Alternatif (BA) managed just 42, far fewer than the 65 needed to break BN's two-thirds majority. As the numbers came in on the night of the vote, the mood at Mahathir's election headquarters in Kuala Lumpur quickly became celebratory. The jubilant PM told his cheering supporters: "Clearly, Barisan Nasional is the party of choice for the people of Malaysia." Except that it is not so simple. From the outset, the Nov. 29 polls - Malaysia's 10th general elections - were eagerly watched and analyzed. Compared with 1995, when BN romped home by a landslide, there were a few more factors to consider this time, including Asia's financial crisis and the political fallout from the ouster and jailing of former deputy PM Anwar Ibrahim. The added complexity of the equation is apparent when one digs deeper into the results. It's not just that BN saw its majority trimmed or that the opposition took the state of Trengganu or that a number of prominent BN candidates lost their races. What is really significant about the various outcomes of the elections is that they collectively mark a major shift in the country's political landscape. But first, the raw facts and figures. BN reaffirmed its grip on power with its 148-seat haul - a smaller figure than the 166 it held before Parliament was dissolved but still enough to retain the two-thirds majority necessary for amending the Constitution. In terms of actual votes, BN won 57%, down from 65% in 1995. The coalition's key component, Mahathir's United Malays National Organization (UMNO), saw its share of seats fall from 94 to 72. Its Chinese partners, the Malaysian Chinese a#sociation (MCA) and Gerakan, delivered a healthy portion of the Chinese vote, with the former winning 27 out of the 35 seats it contested. BN's biggest success came in the East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak, where it won 45 out of 48 seats. On the BA side, the biggest winner was Parti Islam SeMalaysia (Pas), which accounted for 27 of the 42 seats won by the alliance and is now the leading opposition party. The former holder of the title, the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party (DAP), won 10 seats, while Parti Keadilan Nasional grabbed five. Pas was also successful in the state elections, which were held simultaneously in 11 states in peninsular Malaysia. It not only retained control of Kelantan, previously the only state under opposition rule, but wrested Trengganu from BN hands. Mahathir was easily re-elected to his Kubang Pasu seat in Kedah, though his winning margin shrunk from 17,226 in the 1995 elections to 10,138. Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, wife of Anwar and leader of Keadilan, won in her husband's constituency of Permatang Pauh, Penang. But DAP secretary-general Lim Kit Siang and his deputy Karpal Singh both lost their races. On the government side, the big casualties were four cabinet members, including Domestic Trade Minister Megat Junid Megat Ayob, plus Trengganu chief minister Wan Mokhtar Ahmad. Potential future PM Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who was charged with winning Kelantan back for BN, failed to deliver and was the only BN candidate to win his seat in that state. Najib Tun Razak, another possible successor to Mahathir, came through in his Pekan constituency in Pahang - but only barely, with a razor-thin majority of 241. What do all these results mean? One interpretation might be that they represent a "win some, lose some" outcome for both sides, but with BN coming off better. Indeed, while BN supporters were celebrating, opposition members - with perhaps the exception of Pas - were hardly in a jubilant mood, even though they had doubled their share of parliamentary seats. "With a united opposition, for Mahathir to win two-thirds is a feat," says Ramon Navaratnam, director of the Asia Strategy and Leadership Institute. "This will give him the mandate to carry on with his economic program and debunks the theories of many foreign observers who said that Mahathir was bad for the country." It might be, however, a little simplistic to view the results as a resounding endorsement of Mahathir's policies. While BN's solid track record in promoting economic development no doubt played a role, the government had another card up its sleeve: its huge propaganda machine. In the run-up to the polls, Malaysians were treated to all sorts of pro-BN, anti-BA messages in the state-controlled media, including newspaper ads equating Anwar supporters with violence and instability and a TV commercial saying that Wan Azizah herself did not trust her husband. There were even videotapes in circulation that made Anwar out as having multiple bisexual affairs. The tapes showed "confessions" by several men with whom Anwar allegedly had sex. (BN wasn't the only one slinging mud, of course. Oppositionists likened Mahathir to, among others, Satan, and Anwar hinted that the PM had a mistress hidden in Singapore. But BA had no answer to the sheer omnipresence of BN's messages.) "This sort of personal attack has been used before," comments media analyst Zaharom Nain. "However, the level of the attacks, the saturation of the media and the language used have never been so base." The polls may have been dirty in more ways than one. Pemantau, a gra#sroots election watchdog, has reported receiving complaints from the public regarding the electoral roll. Some complainants claimed to have found names of long-dead relatives on the list, while others reported seeing their ID numbers with another person's name. Bangkok-based Asian Network for Free Election also reported evidence of "phantom voters," though it refrained from rejecting the results outright. "What we can infer is, there was a systematic attempt to organize the voter registration in a way it will favor the victory of certain parties," said group member Sunai Phasuk. Wan Ahmad Wan Omar of the Election Commission admits there were problems with the electoral roll but denies any dark motives: "Most of the mistakes that appear are data entry errors." Oppositionists have complained about the irregularities, but Lim, for one, refuses to blame his party's relatively poor showing solely on alleged electoral fraud. "While phantom voters were one cause, they were not the single most important reason for the result," he says. "Throughout the country, we failed to convince the Chinese population that the DAP's involvement with BA was not to bring about an Islamic state but to further the cause of justice and to deny BN its two-thirds majority, the basis for its political hegemony." It is a point well made, for it brings up a crucial element in BN's victory: the Chinese vote. In the past, the Chinese - Malaysia's second-largest ethnic group - have tended toward the opposition. But this time many were clearly spooked by the DAP's alliance with Pas, whose conservative Muslim agenda, which includes introducing Islamic hudud laws, are a turn-off for non-Muslims. Coupled with dire government warnings on opposition-inspired unrest, this steered the majority of Chinese voters toward BN's message of political and economic and racial stability. Which is just as well for the government. Had it not been for the huge Chinese swing, which exceeded BN's most optimistic forecasts, the ruling coalition's goose would have been truly cooked. The Anwar saga had divided the majority Malay community, and this manifested itself in the elections. Traditionally the bedrock of UMNO support, Malay Muslims went over to the opposition in droves, as seen in Pas's takeover of Trengganu and its inroads in other northern Malay-belt states. In areas around Kuala Lumpur, where pro-Anwar sentiments are strong, political analyst Charles Santiago estimates that up to 70% of Malays voted for the opposition. Keadilan was another beneficiary of the Malay split. It may have won just five seats, but it received 11% of the total vote and came close to defeating BN in a number of seats. In constituencies near the capital, "they lost to BN on a margin that is less than 5%," says political scientist A.B. Shamsul. UMNO leaders now predict Pas will dump Keadilan - "Pas used Keadilan only to gain seats," says Deputy PM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi - but Pas officials insist they will not break up the alliance. Despite Pas's success, Shamsul thinks that Keadilan will emerge as the more credible rival to UMNO: "Pas is not a long-term credible alternative for the Malays, because they need a secular party to vote for." BN may have won for now, but it is not out of the woods just yet. Mahathir's reliance on the Chinese will change the political equation within the coalition. The MCA and Gerakan, given their role in attracting the Chinese vote, are likely to demand a bigger say in the way the government is run. "It is clear that the MCA has delivered the votes and the Chinese have voted this government into power," says Ng Yen Yen, head of the MCA's women's wing. "I hope this is considered and given political expression when the government is formed." Mahathir thus faces two choices: give the Chinese more clout in the cabinet (which means a corresponding loss of UMNO's own influence and a possible backlash from Malay members) or don't (which will likely anger the Chinese and give the DAP an issue to exploit). Then there is the uncertainty over who will succeed Mahathir. Abdullah, Razaleigh and Najib were seen as possible heirs apparent. But Razaleigh's failure to deliver Kelantan and Najib's own close-call re-election have weakened their positions. Abdullah has fared best, successfully holding off the DAP in Penang. Shamsul thinks the PM might appoint two deputies as he slowly relinquishes his duties: "Abdullah to handle the social issues and Razaleigh to take over matters close to his heart - that is, financial management and the entrepreneurial side of the government." That, however, could open the door to a bruising succession battle once Mahathir retires. The ramifications of the Malay split go beyond BN and UMNO's internal politicking. Previously, the government-opposition divide was one between Malay-dominated UMNO and the Chinese-dominated DAP. But now that Pas is the main opposition party, "we have a situation where for the first time we have a Malay-dominated government and a Malay-dominated opposition," notes political columnist James Wong Wing On. Says Abdul Azim Zabidi, a member of UMNO Youth's executive council: "We now see a strong emergence of Islamic fundamentalism," which could rattle investors. A day after the vote, The Sun newspaper, which is owned by Chinese business interests, editorialized: "Pas's comprehensive victory in Kelantan and Trengganu and the significant inroads it has made in Kedah and elsewhere are signs of a dissatisfied, protesting Malay multitude." It added: "A divided Malay community is a confused community, and a confused community cannot be a confident community. Therein lies the threat to our national unity." The point of the editorial might have been to simply point to the potential dangers lying ahead. Or it might have been to castigate those who voted opposition for bringing about a destabilizing situation. It might even have been to use the specter of divided Malays to give BN's Chinese components more bargaining clout when the new government is being formed. Whatever its purpose, the editorial underlined a new reality: the Malay divide has changed - perhaps irrevocably - the political landscape. And with both the government and the opposition laying claim to the allegiance of the same majority, the fight for Malaysia's future looks to become more intense in the days ahead. ------------------------------------------------ Behind The Smile . . . Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad faces a startling change in his country's political landscape. It gives cause for concern - but also for hope By ARJUNA RANAWANA Kuala Lumpur This picture of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad was taken when the results of the general elections were announced. It shows him elated, giving supporters the thumbs-up. Mahathir has been there, done that. To his credit, the polls marked another victory for his ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, another two-thirds majority in Parliament, another stint as his country's hard-driving, hard-nosed, undisputed leader. Business as usual, right? Wrong. The facts barely camouflage serious setbacks for the establishment. Mahathir's own party, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), lost unprecedented ground, mainly to the opposition Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (Pas). At least half of the country's ethnic-Malay population voted for the opposition, denied a shot at power only by the Chinese and other minority communities. They did so partly because they were drawn to Pas's stern brand of morality, partly because of the bitter personality clash between Mahathir and his ousted deputy, Anwar Ibrahim. The upshot is that the Malays are divided as never before. For the first time in his 18 years as chief executive, the prime minister will face a fellow Malay, from Pas, as leader of the opposition in Parliament. The Nov. 29 ballot has caused a sharp reconfiguration in Malaysia's political landscape which gives much cause for reflection, perhaps even concern - yet promises hope for the future. The danger is that opposition-minded Malays will resent the Chinese who voted the government back in. The Malays are the country's biggest and strongest ethnic group. To have them badly split does not augur well for stability, an essential precondition for economic as well as political progress. Such a divide is a price that neither side - government nor opposition - should want to pay for victory. Yet if the divide means that Malaysia will eventually move toward a multi-ethnic two-party system, then that would be the best option for a long-term democratic - and stable - polity. Between the polarized halves stand Malaysians of all races seeking a middle ground, looking beyond Mahathir and Anwar and Pas. In a democracy, elections are not just a way of voting in a new government, or reaffirming an old one. The ballot box is also a way of debating and settling national issues. In Malaysia the debate of the day is this: Does the current system, which keeps the peace and provides development but is riddled with corruption and autocratic practices, need to be reformed? The polls did not answer that question comprehensively - overall, the status quo prevailed. But in many seats that UMNO or its coalition partners contested against, say, the reformist banner of the fledgling, multiracial Parti Keadilan Nasional (National Justice Party), the margins of victory were perilously thin. This despite Barisan fielding seasoned campaigners against Keadilan's neophytes, including party chief Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, Anwar's wife and proxy. The underlying message is that there is wide support for positive change, and that the young people who stood on street corners yelling "reformasi" cannot be dismissed as a fringe group. Ignoring them may force them to seek redress perhaps not through the vote but through public protests that may well turn violent. Both government and opposition need to sustain the sentiment that at times surfaced during the otherwise heated campaign period: that ties from common interests and goals are stronger and healthier than those along communal lines. Said opposition worker Stephanie Bastian at one point during the elections: "Everyone seems blind to race." In that spirit lies Malaysia's future. ----------------------------------------------- 'UMNO Is Known To Change' Abdullah Badawi on the elections The day after polling, Deputy PM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, 60, met with Asiaweek's a#sif Shameen and two other foreign correspondents to give his spin on the elections. UMNO and many of Abdullah's fellow ministers and party stalwarts did not do well at all. But Abdullah himself won in his Penang state constituency (though with a much smaller margin than in the last elections in 1995), consolidating his position as No. 2 behind PM Mahathir Mohamad. Excerpts: Ethnic Malays appear more divided than ever. I don't think so. No doubt Pas has captured two states and has more than half the MPs in Kedah. It's true we lost a lot of seats in those states. Of course that's not commendable, but Pas has captured those seats before and we'll get them back next time. I do see a stronger demand by Muslims and younger Muslims in the north that more should be done for Islam. On the issue of Islam, we have been misunderstood. Pas talks about Islamic society and shariah law. Our emphasis has been on improving the lot of the Muslim through development. Some voters perhaps want a balance between pursuit of material wealth and spiritual wealth. Some of the people have been criticizing the government's megaprojects. There is a lack of understanding of the true long-term benefits of the megaprojects. We are not borrowing a lot of money to pay for these projects or placing the economy under any strain. The message is clear: [the people] still want us. The other message you could read is: What about justice? And how do you read Pas's gains at both parliamentary and state levels? One thing is clear: Pas remains the main strong opposition party in the country. Keadilan helped Pas because they picked up issues like reformasi, justice, etc., and Pas picked them up quickly and used them to its own advantage. The Anwar issue was linked to all that. Pas gained far more in this election than did Keadilan. Who suffered in this election? Keadilan. They did not make it even in the Kuala Lumpur area, which is their heartland. The government returned to power because of overwhelming support from ethnic Chinese voters. Will this mean additional clout for the Chinese parties within Barisan Nasional? The Chinese in Malaysia now only support the government. In this election Barisan has emerged with broad-based support. Before our support was predominantly Malay. Now we have very strong support from the Chinese. The arrangement between Barisan partners will remain unchanged. Are we going to see a kinder, gentler UMNO in the wake of the elections, one that is committed to changing the old ways? You are a#suming that UMNO doesn't make any changes. UMNO is a party that has been known to change with the times. UMNO has been committed to development and to the need for change. The one thing that UMNO has done for the Malays is that it has made them more confident of themselves. UMNO is the most gentle party of all - very kind, very responsive. ------------------------------------------ The New Malay Dilemma Why some Malaysians are uneasy with "the boss" By AJAY SINGH It's not easy to describe Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad without resorting to superlatives. In his country's official circles, he is widely - and appropriately - known as "the boss," a term that, in Malay, also means "big man." Lately, some Malaysians have been calling him maha firaun, or "great pharaoh." Outsiders would be forgiven for drawing parallels between the biblical pharaoh Nimrod, a builder of great cities, and Mahathir, the visionary creator of such architectural wonders as the Petronas Towers. Dr. M, however, is not the least amused. Pharaohs were generally absolute despots, not to mention godless, and Mahathir, 73, finds the comparison odious. The parallel could threaten the nation's stability, he warned in a Nov. 16 interview to the private television station TV3. "Feelings of hate against me will arise and whatever I say will not be accepted," he said. Mahathir had mentioned in other forums earlier that the campaign against him is the handiwork of certain opposition parties and university lecturers on Islamic studies. What is it about Mahathir that inspires talk of maha firaun and maha zalim ("most cruel") - words frequently sighted on Internet chat rooms about Malaysia? The answer lies in a "Mahathirian" paradox: While he has earned the respect of Malaysians for vastly improving the quality of their lives in his 18 years as PM, Mahathir is at the same time widely feared and sometimes reviled. But the mixed feelings that many Malaysians have toward their PM says a lot about them - and about Mahathir himself. "He has been in power for so long that Malays have matured enough to become more democratic, educated and willing to express themselves," says former deputy PM Musa Hitam. Indeed, the biggest issue in Malaysia today is the political division among Malays as a result of the imprisonment last year of Mahathir's once-designated heir Anwar Ibrahim. For the first time in the nation's history, Malaysians took to the streets demanding reformasi (reforms). But paradoxically, the rallies only proved how successful Mahathir's track record has been. For, as Musa puts it, "unlike the old days, [the protests] are now non-racial and issue-based." Those new issues show just how far Malaysians have come thanks to the principal objective of Mahathir's political life: special treatment for Malays. In 1969, he was temporarily expelled from the dominant United Malays National Organization for violating the party's policy against airing racial issues. The following year, Mahathir wrote The Malay Dilemma, a book denouncing Malays for their cultural shortcomings and demanding that the government pay urgent attention to their plight. If race were once the most formidable problem for Malaysia, religious extremism is one of the challenges of today. And Mahathir, a long-time opponent of Muslims who portray Islam as anti-modern, is worried. He was asked in the TV3 interview if he thought that the young generation of Malaysians were capable of maintaining the directions in which he had set the nation moving. Mahathir replied that while he had faith in the ability of young people, they could fall victim to Islamic hardliners who stress that good Muslims should "put aside the hasanah [benefits] in this world" and think only of the world hereafter. One reason why religious extremists thrive in parts of Malaysia is because there are still plenty of disappointments and unfulfilled expectations. Such as the lack of a transparent government. Mahathir may have rescued Malaysia from the Asian financial crisis but he has yet to implement the institutional reform necessary for the economy's long-term health. Over the years, he has steadily increased his authority by strengthening the power of the executive, which has also made it easier for him to extend state patronage to his favorites. It is no wonder many people feel what political scientist P. Ramasamy calls "reluctant admiration" for their PM. None of this is to deny or belittle Mahathir's immense and wide-ranging contributions. Thanks to him, Malaysia has changed from an Asian backwater to a progressive and pluralistic nation that enjoys a high status in the developing world. But at the same time, it is impossible to ignore that politics, as symbolized by the Anwar Ibrahim case, has taken a dramatic turn for the worse. "Fear and tear gas," as one commentator put it, were not a normal part of Malaysian politics. "They are now." Malaysians got a hint of Mahathir's response to their disillusionment when he dissolved Parliament on Nov. 10 ahead of general elections. He told reporters with typical brusqueness:"I don't care whether I am popular or not, whether I go down in history as a bad guy or a good guy." His legacy will probably be neither one or the other, but a bit of both.