KEMBANG KUNCUP EKONOMI

Seorang rakan yang berkhidmat dalam sektor koporat memberitahu saya terdapat kebimbangan ekonomi negara akan merosot. Pengguna kini sudah kurang minat untuk berbelanja. Mereka cuma membeli barangan keperluan sahaja seperti sabun mandi dan sabun basuh. Shampoo yang berjenama agak kurang laris ketika ini, tetapi terdapat trend (pergerakkan) mereka beralih untuk memakai jenama yang lebih murah. Sekiranya ini berterusan, syarikat mungkin terpaksa menukar strategi dengan menghasilkan jenama yang lebih murah dengan mencairkan sedikit shampoo misalnya.

Kini banyak syarikat di Amerika sudah meramalkan keuntungan yang semakin menurun. Hari ini, di New York NASDAQ merudum teruk bila Cisco meramalkan keuntungan yang meleset. Ia akan menggoyangkan prestasi IPO KPMG berjumlah US$1.9 bilion pada hari Khamis nanti.

Indeks NASDAQ tenggelam pada paras terendah sejak Januari, pada paras 2,167.82 mata. Semua saham teknologi merosot kerana Cisco merupakan 'heavyweight' dan 'corporate darlings of Wall Street'. Buat pertama kalinya selepas lebih 6 tahun keuntungan Cisco tidak menepati sasaran Wall Street. (Rujuk: Forbes)

"Consumer expectations for the next six months have declined to the lowest point since 1996, the end of former President Clinton's first term. With George W. Bush now in office, and widespread reports of layoffs by everyone from Amazon.com (nasdaq: AMZN - news - people) to DaimlerChrysler (nyse: DCX - news - people) to Lucent (nyse: LU - news - people), expectations have fallen from near record levels to "below average." The Consumer Confidence Index fell in January for the fourth consecutive month." (Dan Ackman -Greenspan's Shadow - Forbes]


"Recession is that season in the economic calendar when investment mistakes are repriced and reprocessed, a joyless but necessary time. How necessary? Consider that Japan spent the 1990s refusing to confront its errors of the 1980s. The only thing worse than a bad recession is none at all." (James Grant - Welcome to Recession - Forbes)

Hutang sektor koporat akan menggugat sistem perbankan dan dana tempatan. Mereka inilah yang akan menampung kerugian akibat pengurusan kroni yang bengap. Kini dana Petronas semakin berkurang sehingga ia terpaksa menawarkan bon untuk terus menampung projek yang akan datang. Dana lain bergantung kepada caruman rakyat marhain yang terpaksa dilakukan melalui potongan seperti EPF dan dana pencen. Ekspot negara akan tergugat kerana Amerika menyerap hampir 20% dari sebelah sini. Sekiranya yang bocor itu lebih cepat dari yang mencurah masuk, ekonomi negara akan bergoyang. Maka sebab itulah Mahathir dan Daim sedang membuka lebih ruang, malangnya campurtangan politik kerajaan masih membuat ramai pelabur curiga untuk datang.

MAHATHIR TERNGANGA

Mahathir kelihatan seperti ingin membuka lebih banyak ruang untuk dana luar memiliki beberapa pegangan dalam ekonomi negara. Bulan Ogos lepas 30% pegangan dalam Tanjung Pelepas Port dijual kepada Maersk. Beberapa pegangan di Wesport Port Klang pula dijual kepada Hutchison international. Dalam belanjawan lepas, Daim semakin mengurangkan lagi sekatan tetapi apakah itu satu petanda baik buat semua pelabur luar? Pakar ekonomi Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) masih ragu dengan perkembangan terbaru itu.

Sebenarnya pelaburan tahun lepas lebih tertumpu kepada sektor petrokimia - itu sahajalah yang masih kuat untuk menampung ekonomi. Kelembapan ekonomi di A.S. akan menghantui perkembangan ekonomi negara kerana A.S. adalah antara sumber modal terbesar untuk Malaysia. Keadaan ini amat membimbangkan para perangka-polisi (policy maker) dan sektor perniagaan. Tetapi kerajaan masih berdegil untuk melakukan reformasi untuk menarik minat pelabur atas sebab-sebab politik.

MEMBOLOT PUN MASIH RUGI

Kes Tajuddin Ramli menggambarkan satu campurtangan politik yang tidak sihat untuk ekonomi negara. Sejak Tajuddin menerajui MAS pada tahun 1995, syarikat tersebut mengalami kerugian demi kerugian serta pelbagai kritik kerana khidmat yang tidak cemerlang. Ekonomi merudum dijadikan alasan tetapi mengapa syarikat penerbangan Singapura mencatatkan keuntungan?

RM 1.79 bilion disia-siakan untuk membela Tajuddin manakala RM 5 bilion lagi untuk dua sistem LRT yang bangkrap. Petronas pula membeli 27.2% pegangan dalam Proton dari DRB-Hicom yang begitu tenat berhutang. Padahal kesemua syarikat tersebut membolot pasaran masing-masing itupun masih kecundang.

Menjelang 2005, tarif keatas motor kereta terpaksa diturunkan mengikut perjanjian AFTA kepada tidak lebih 5% (Tarif kini adalah 300%). Tetapi kualiti Proton masih di tahap besi 'tin-milo' lagi. Padahal dengan harga tersebut rakyat sebenarnya sudah boleh memilikki kereta seperti Honda Civic. (kereta paling popular dalam kategori impot).

MSC CANTIK TAK BERISI

MSC memang cantik di atas kertas tetapi pelaksanaannya sungguh carca-marba. Sampai sekarang tidak ada satu pun projek bertaraf dunia yang dapat mengharumkan nama. Hanya menghabiskan wang membayar kepada perunding sahaja. Tentu kita masih belum lupa projek bio-enginerring satu ketika dulu yang kini sudah diam tak bersuara. Malaysia lebih mementingkan prasarana dan kelengkapan sedangkan pendidikkan adalah asas untuk kejayaan. Jalinan antara pusat kajian di universiti dengan syarikat berteknologi adalah amat penting untuk ini. Malangnya tidak ramai rakyat yang belajar sehingga ketahap PhD.

Di negara Amerika, mereka mendapat bimbingan professor untuk mencetus idea supaya para pelajar dapat membina teknologi. Di sinilah kesilapan kita memahami apa itu teknologi. Ia bersarang di universiti bukan di MSC! Baru sekarang kerajaan mahu membangunkan tenaga kerja, tetapi tanpa bimbingan professor harapan itu akan sia-sia. Dan dengan kos yang tinggi untuk menampung pelajaran, ramai akan cabut siang-siang untuk memakan gaji selepas mendapat degree (ijazah) kerana wang tidak mencukupi.

Gejala ciplak dan cetak rompak pun satu hal yang masih gagal ditangani. Tanpa penguatkuasaan, ia hanya akan melemahkan semangat untuk sesiapa sahaja yang mahu membina perisian (software). Malah rakyat lebih cekap menciplak sehingga mereka boleh mencipta pelbagai teknik untuk tidak diserkap. Pergilah ke Plaza Imbi, mereka semuanya sihat dan masih beroperasi. Mungkin ada yang empunya lebih seorang bini atau memandu kereta mewah walau cuma berkemeja T.

Source: ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT 06/02/2001

Mahathir remains wary of foreign investors.

On more than a few occasions during the past six months it has seemed as if Mahathir Mohamad's government was about to cast off the protective cloak that restricts foreign investors' access to big chunks of Malaysia's economy. Hopes of a significant opening up of the previously no-go "strategic" sector were stirred last August by the sale of a 30% interest in Johor's Tanjung Pelepas port to Danish shipping giant Maersk, and of a similarly-sized slice of Port Klang's Westport to Hong Kong-based Hutchison International Terminals. These were subsequently heightened by official admissions that negotiations were underway with potential overseas partners on the disposal of equity in three of the most jealously guarded symbols of corporate national pride: carmaker Proton, Malaysian Airlines and Telekom Malaysia.

Take early last month, too. The government announced the rollover of a waiver introduced at the height of the Asian crisis effectively allowing foreigners to set up wholly-owned manufacturing plants of almost any kind; it even broadened the scope of the waiver to include investments for the expansion and diversification of existing operations. Ten days later finance minister Daim Zainuddin, Dr Mahathir's chief policymaker, promised "instant" satisfaction for would-be investors in need of tailor-made incentives.

Are we witnessing in these moves a leap towards greater openness, or even just a few deliberate steps in that direction? Neither, in our view.

On closer examination, and set in the context of a plethora of discouraging news over the same period, the government's attitude to foreign investment remains acutely ambivalent. It needs to reverse the generalised slide in inflows - last year's figures were bloated by the approval of a large petrochemical project - to sustain the present economic recovery, or at least prevent it from stalling. The slowdown in the US, Malaysia's largest market as well as its main source of capital, is a huge worry for policymakers and businesses alike. Yet the government is still unwilling, not least for political reasons, to make the sort of far-reaching changes that might woo back by now very wary investors.

For starters, not even the "good" news is that encouraging. The pledge of prompt gratification for companies keen on customised concessions, while doubtless welcomed by some, reinforces the general perception that a level playing field for all is still a long way off. And why, demand the egalitarians, was the 100% foreign-ownership entitlement not extended to activities other than manufacturing? In services, for example, the engine of growth in developed economies whose ranks Malaysia is so determined to join? As for the mooted sale to outsiders of equity in that trio of prized state-run companies, progress appears to be painfully slow. All have plenty of potential to grow bigger fairly fast, their suitors agree, if only the government was willing to relinquish enough management control to let it happen.

There are a host of other concerns too. The political outlook is distinctly uncertain. Dr Mahathir turned 75 in December, and there are fears of possible unrest whether he stays on or goes. His persistent characterisation of Western big business as rapacious has all sorts of negative repercussions. Late last year the Anti-Corruption Agency, an arm of the prime minister's department, seemed to take a cue from him by confirming the imminent launch of a campaign against graft in the local operations of multinationals.

Contrast that with his administration's unapologetic and costly indulgence of big, badly managed local groups. Its promise in December to buy back merchant banker-turned entrepreneur Tajudin Ramli's controlling 29% stake in Malaysian Airline System (MAS) is just one example. Mr Tajudin's executive chairmanship, which began in 1994, has been a dismal tale of big losses, bigger debts, mounting customer dissatisfaction and plunging staff morale. Yet the government agreed to pay him M$1.79bn (US$471m), or M$8 a share, for his stake, more than double the market value of the stock. That hefty premium understandably triggered allegations yet another favoured crony was being bailed out. It also implies that any foreign partner which does materialise - talks have been held with several carriers, including KLM, Qantas and Swissair - would have to pay through the nose and be subject to many of the strict official controls that hobbled Mr Tajudin.

A claim by Mr Daim last month that the government was in no hurry to sell MAS equity to a foreign carrier suggests overseas interest in the airline is waning. It also seems to diminish the likelihood of privatisation - hitherto synonymous with the hiving off of assets to politically well-connected but often less-than-efficient locals - being transformed primarily into a vehicle for divestment to outside investors. This has been given further credence by reports that the assets of two bankrupt Kuala Lumpur light-rail companies for which the government agreed in December to assume responsibility - at a cost of some M$5bn - are to be leased back to their developers.

Ironically, the recent purchase of a 27.2% stake in Proton by state-run oil giant Petronas (from indebted local conglomerate DRB-Hicom) could pave the way for an overseas heavyweight to buy into the struggling national carmaker. Ford is said to be a front-runner. It has promised that the Proton brand would be safeguarded - a top priority for Dr Mahathir, who launched the company in 1983 as a key plank of the country's industrialisation drive. Such a divestment is clearly desirable. Without the technology and access to overseas markets it could bring, heavily-protected, high-cost Proton would be hard-pressed to remain competitive after 2005, when tariffs on motor vehicles are due to fall to no more than 5% (from up to 300% at present) under the ASEAN Free Trade Area Agreement (AFTA). Yet the prime minister insists that no more than 30% of Proton's equity can be sold to foreign investors, and Japan's Mitsubishi already owns a 16% interest.

Having reportedly threatened to abandon AFTA unless fellow members bowed to its demand for a two-year deferral of scheduled duty cuts on vehicle imports, the government could seek to delay other liberalisation commitments, and thereby risk depriving Malaysia of more foreign investment. Concerned about the weak competitive position of many local firms, Dr Mahathir's has admitted having "second thoughts" about AFTA's entry into force in less than two years.

Executives of established foreign-owned companies, such as those in the vital electronics sector, say the tax and other investment incentives on offer are now generally inadequate, having been bettered by competitor countries in the region. So what sort of a reception might any newcomers willing to take the plunge expect? Regulations governing the setting up of new firms are onerous, and seem set to remain so. Laws to safeguard intellectual property rights - no small issue given Malaysia's ambition to become a "knowledge" economy - tend to be poorly enforced, even if they appear admirable on paper.

Dr Mahathir, headstrong and single-minded though he may be, is a reflection of the country he runs, and many share his resistance to greater openness. Some believe the government is being too generous already. Influential author and one-time senior finance ministry official Ramon Navaratnam argued last month that giving free rein to foreign firms to establish wholly-owned manufacturing facilities cannot but retard the "build-up of Malaysia's technological capacity and [its] participation in modern industries". Perhaps the prime minister agrees. The same day, he called on Asian countries to "examine liberal democracy and the unfettered market in a borderless world and determine what we should accept, reject and modify." Little, really, has changed.

SOURCE: Business Asia.

(c) 2001 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved.