Sumber: Cnet - Bloomberg

Seperti biasa saya bukanlah seorang yang mempercayai semua yang ditulis oleh rencana dibawah ini. Saya juga tidak ingin menterjemahkannya juga. Apa yang ingin dimaklumkan di sini ialah betapa kayanya Telekom Malaysia - bukan kaya duit tapi kaya hutang....

Berikut terjemahan perenggan kedua akhir:

"Setengah syarikat telefon mengatakan mereka perlu mengembangkan rangkaian (network) mereka untuk bersaing, terutamanya dengan kedatangan pemain2 global sprt British Telecomm. Plc yg memiliki beberapa bahagian dlm syarikat2 di pasaran Asia dari Hong Kong, Korea, Singapura dan NZ.

Bagaimana pun, setengah syarikat telefon pula, sedang mengalami beban hutang yang amat berat yang bermula sejak bulan Julai 1997.

Telekom Malaysia Berhad, misalnya, menanggung hutang jangka panjang sebanyak US$2 billion pada penghujung tahun lepas.

Philipine Long Distance Telephone Co pula menanggung hutang jangka panjang sebanyak US 3.4 billion pada Disember lepas. Syarikat2 ini mungkin menghadapi ombak gelora yang sukar untuk bersaing dengan pemain2 asing dalam pasaran mereka - kata beberapa analis.

Komen:

Macam mana tak berhutang sakan - tengok aje berapa banyak wang yang sudah dihumban untuk mencitakan MSC buat mengharumkan nama diktator tua. Fiber sana sini tapi asyik lengang memanjang. Banyak inactiviti dari activiti. Lagipun Mukhriz itu tuan punya Opcon Berhad yg mempunyai kilang di Balakong. Berapa juta agaknya dia dapat kerana MSC sengaja dibuat BESAR dan LUAS, maka ini bermakna banyak memerlukan fibre optic cable..... siapa yang membelinya dan siapa yang menjualnya?

Yang kita ni - sistem ISDN pun tak larat nak bayar sewa. Macam mana Telekom nak recover - tentu lambat sehinga berbunga2. Siapa yang akan membayarnya nanti jika tidak rakyat jelata juga - kerana itu jangan terkejut jika kadar talifon menjadi tinggi menggila - kerana Telekom sukar nak bernyawa.

S&P: Asian phone companies may face greater risks

By Bloomberg, Singapore.CNET.com
Wednesday, September 13 2000

SINGAPORE--Asian phone companies may have expanded rapidly with growing demand for newer services such as cellular phones and the Internet, warned Standard & Poor's, an international credit rating agency that also tracks the industry.

Phone companies in the region are facing "increasing business risks" with foreign competition and excessive expansion. Facing severe price competition, many are moving into less developed markets and newer technology, which could worsen their outlook to creditors.

"Because of dwindling margins on traditional telephony services, they're moving into value-added services," Andrew Lee, associate director of corporate ratings at S&P in Singapore, said in an interview. "There's this whole uncertainty behind the demand for these value-added services and that throws into question future operating cash flows."

S&P's warning could make it more difficult or more expensive for phone companies to raise money through loans or bonds to expand their business. Companies from Singapore Telecommunications Ltd to Australia's Telstra Corp are increasingly eyeing opportunities in the region to diversify their revenue base with greater competition.

Telstra's regional plans, however, has been slapped with a "negative watch," which means S&P may downgrade its credit rating or its reliability in repaying debt.

S&P said in its report Telstra's relying too much on "higher risk areas" such as data, the Internet and cellular phones for growth instead of traditional voice services. Three weeks ago, it said it will invest US$3 billion in ventures with Pacific Century CyberWorks Ltd, Asia's No. 2 Internet investor.

S&P also put Japan's NTT Corp, the world's biggest phone company, on a similar warning as it's lowering the fee it charges other companies to connect to its local phone network. The move may hurt earnings of its units. NTT will cut those rates by about a fifth over two years.

Overbuilding

Regional phone companies could also be spending too much building up their networks to edge out competition. In Singapore, for example, mobile phone rivals Singapore Telecom and MobileOne Asia Pte Ltd regularly compare in advertisements the number of base stations--which transmit signals to phones--they have, or how effective their coverage is on the island.

This year alone, regional phone companies from Japan's KDD Corp to Philippines' Globe Telecom Inc are spending at least US$3 billion on undersea cable networks in anticipation of an explosion in Internet traffic. Market researcher IDC estimates the number of Internet users in the region to expand 34 percent a year until 2004 to reach 94.95 million customers.

"We're not saying the operators will go in blindly, but the tendency is for operators to be more optimistic in their future demand and there's always the potential risk of excess capacity."

Competition

Still, phone companies say they need to expand their networks to stay competitive, particularly with the arrival of global players such as British Telecommunications Plc, which owns stakes in companies in Asian markets from Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore to New Zealand.

Some phone companies, however, are heavily in debt following the regional economic slowdown, which started in July 1997. Telekom Malaysia Bhd, for example, has US$2 billion in long term debt at the end of last year. Indonesia's PT Telkom has US$1.2 billion. Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co has US$3.4 billion in long term debt as of December. These companies may have tougher times competing with foreign players in their markets, some analysts say.

"The former monopoly incumbents are definitely facing challenges in most of the markets and the challenges are exacerbated in Asia right now because Asia was the last region to liberalize at a time when global players came in," said Michael Garstka, vice president of Bain & Co, a consulting company which also advises phone companies. "The challenges will be much more significant now."