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HARGA MINYAK MENDADAK - YANG MENANG DAN YANG KALAH.
Rencana Ini dipetik dari Star Business,
Muka Surat 5.
Komen:
Baru2 ini kita ada desas-sesus bahawa harga petrol akan meningkat. Pihak
kerajaan (Refeedah) memberi kata dua bahawa harga barangan tidak akan
meningkat serta pengguna tidak akan dibebani olehnya.
Desas desus ini kemudian diikuti dengan isu royalti minyak Negeri Terengganu.
Kemudian kita dikejutkan pula dengan karenah tawar selepas hambar dalam isu
CEO TNB. Pasaran saham terus bercelaru dan menjunam bagai nak pitam sebaik
sahaja pelabur mendapati Ahmad Tajuddin dipinggirkan.
Saya tidaklah bersetuju 100% dengan rencana the Star ini. Tapi saya siarkan di
sini kerana TNB disebut didalamnya - langsung pelbagai tanda tanya mengetuk
fikiran saya yang memang telah lama curiga....
Rupa2 nya ada buaya yang sedang menanti di dalam paya.
Penulis rencana ini mengatakan kesan harga minyak tidak akan menjejaskan
prestasi TNB kerana kurang 10% dari keluaran tenaga TNB dihasilkan melalui
kuasa petroliam.
TNB membeli gas dari Petronas dengan kadar tetap RM6.4 se unit di bawah satu
kontrak panjang yang berakhir hujung tahun ini.
Jika harga gas meningkat 40%, penulis rencana tersebut menganggarkan TNB akan
menaikkan tarif sebanyak 10%.
Di sinilah JJ turut memainkan peranannya (berapa peratus dia nak taruk?),
selain peranan untuk kuncu2 yang menjual "kuasa" kepada TNB pada "kadar
semasa"
- iaitu pembekal kuasa dari YTL, Powertek, Malakoff dsb nya. Pada saat ini kita
akan dapat menilai, siapakah yang betul2 istimewa - pengguna atau kroni manja.
Tidak ketinggalan, pekerja2 TNB juga tentu mendapat sesuatu yang amat istimewa
juga - seperti kakitangan Petronas juga - iaitu sukarnya mendapat imbuhan
kerana sudah kontang!!
SURGING OIL PRICES - WINNERS AND LOSERS
THE prospects for higher petrol
prices in Malaysia have
generated much attention lately.
Current crude oil prices of
around US$32 per barrel (Tapis)
were unseen since the Gulf War
a decade ago. There appears to
be little relief in the short term,
what with the US inventory at a
24-year low, the approach of
winter in the Northern
Hemisphere, and rising Asian
demand as the region bounces
back from the crisis.
As a country, Malaysia stands
to benefit. Oil exports amounted
to almost RM 10bil last year, or
about 3% of total exports. This
is set to feature much more
prominently this year.
The impact on listed
companies, however, is not so
clear cut, and generally, we see
more losers than winners.
|
Oil price January 2000 to September 2000
|
Losers
* MAS: Immediate victim due to escalating jet fuel bill. In the
financial year ending March 2000, fuel comprised about 22%
of operating costs when average crude oil price was about US$22
per barrel (Tapis). It is now more than 50% higher.
Assuming a US$28 per barrel average oil price, MAS?s fuel
bifi in the current financial year could increase by more than
RM500 mil, slashing 6 sen off EPS.
This challenging operating environment will offset the
positive impact of good news flows in terms of possible
foreign partner, airline alliances etc. No reason to buy.
* Petronas Dagangan: Margins are squeezed by rising crude oil
prices due to the lagged impact of the pricing mechanism
governing retail sales. This was already seen in the last financial
year when operating margins dived from 7.5% in the first
quarter to 4.1% in the fourth. The soon-to-be-announced
April-June result benefited from the momentary weakness in oil
price from February-April, but this was shortlived as margins
came under renewed pressure from July.
Its share price will be supported by above average net
dividend yields of 3.7% but offers no excitement otherwise.
* MISC: Margins will squeezed but less so compared
airlines. Firstly, fuel cost is less a major cost component and sec-
ondly, shipping companies have some leeway to pass through
fuel cost fluctuations, especially when overall rates are firming.
In the case of MISC, a further buffer is its LNG contracts with
Petronas, still the mainstay of earnings. The liquefied national
gas (LNG) contracts are on cost plus basis.
Minimal/Uncertain Impact
* Powertek, YTL Power and Malakoff: No impact on profit as
variations in fuel costs are fully passed through to Tenaga
Nasional Bhd. Minimal impact on cashflows, if any. Powertek
and YTL Power are fairly priced but Malakoff offers 15%-20%
upside from current levels.
* Tenaga Nasional: Immediate impact is negative but not
significantly so as less than 10% of its electricity generation
is oil-fired.
Tenaga currently buys gas at a fixed price of RM6.4 per unit
(market price around RM18 per unit) from Petroliam Nasional
Bhd (Petronas) under a long-term contract up to the end of
this year.
We do not think the gas purchase price will be fully
adjusted to market, and are instead looking at a moderate
increase to defray higher costs for Petronas. Tenaga, in return,
is likely to get a tariff in-crease which, after incorporating the
higher gas bill, should be slightly earnings enhancing.
This supports our HOLD recommendation. Based on our
estimates, a 40% increase in Tenaga?s gas purchase price can
be offset by a 10% tariff hike.
* Petronas Gas: Not affected by oil prices as it is a gas
processor earning a fee income independent of oil prices. Stock
is uninspiring as revised processing agreement lowers
revenue and profit.
* Shell and Esso: Shell is a pure refinery while Esso
combines refining and retailing. Refining margins are not
dependent on oil price per se but the relative movement of crude
oil and product costs. Over the past few months, refining
margins have been very volatile and were especially squeezed in
April-June. We understand that margins have since improved
slightly but believe that volatility will continue in the short
term. Esso's retailing operations will be similarly affected as
Petronas Dagangan.
Gainers
* Genting: The current crude oil price strength accentuates the
value of its oil and gas ventures, where it has invested more than
US$ 100 mil to date. Investors, though, are likely to focus on the
earnings prospects for Resorts World rather than a promising
venture a few years down the road.
The other gainers will be oil and gas service support
companies which should see improved demand from
increased upstream activities. These tend to be smallish
companies including Bumi Armada and Crest Petroleum.
On the other hand, newly-listed Petra Per-dana is relatively
cushioned from the fluctuation in oil prices.